Impact assessment

Engineering

Ecology

Biology

Statistics

Coal mining

Probabilistic logic

Scope (computer science)

Variable (mathematics)

Computer science

Filter (signal processing)

Coal

Environmental planning

Waste management

Mathematics

Political science

Sampling (signal processing)

Environmental resource management

Environmental science

Mathematical analysis

Artificial intelligence

Environmental impact assessment

Public administration

Programming language

Uncertainty analysis

Computer vision

Environmental Modelling & Software

A crucial decision in defining the scope of an environmental impact assessment is to delineate the initial assessment area. We developed a probabilistic methodology to determine this area, which starts by identifying a key environmental variable, maximum acceptable change and acceptable probability of exceeding that threshold. The exceedance probability is determined with a limits of acceptability rejection sampling of informed prior parameter distributions. A qualitative uncertainty analysis, a formal and systematic discussion of the main assumptions and model choices, is complemented with global sensitivity analysis of the model results to identify the major sources of uncertainty and provide guidance for further research and data collection. For the case study on coal development in the Gloucester Basin (NSW, Australia), the initial assessment extent is unlikely to extend more than 5 km from the edge of the planned coal mines. The major source of uncertainty is the planned mine water production rate.

Determining the initial spatial extent of an environmental impact assessment with a probabilistic screening methodology