World heritage

Historic site

Natural heritage

Geopark

Ecology

Biology

Tourism

China

Archaeology

Distribution (mathematics)

Land cover

Environmental planning

Mathematics

Geography

Cultural heritage

Environmental resource management

Elevation (ballistics)

Natural (archaeology)

Environmental science

Mathematical analysis

Geometry

Land use

Environmental protection

Habitat International

This study researched the Natural World Heritage Site of Jiuzhaigou, China, which has a vulnerable ecological environment and booming tourism industry. Using satellite imaging with field calibration, we established the site's land-use databases for 2005 and 2015, analysed tourism land-use transformations, determined the driving mechanism behind land-use, and simulated the spatial patterns of tourism lands for 2025 and 2035. The results revealed that, during 2005–2015, the heritage site underwent dramatic land-use/land-cover change from tourism development. The tourism functions have been becoming more similar. Moreover, the distribution of tourism lands was determined by elevation and slope, as well as distances to transportation lands, watersheds, and existing lands. Between 2025 and 2035, the evolution of tourism lands is projected to gradually slow down, while the tourism functions of each village would still be dominated by accommodation and catering.

Analysis and simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of tourism lands at the Natural World Heritage Site Jiuzhaigou, China