Context (archaeology)

Climatology

Engineering

Ecology

Biology

Precipitation

Hydrometeorology

Archaeology

Climate simulation

Economics

Heat wave

Climate model

Geology

Oceanography

Mechanical engineering

Forcing (mathematics)

Global warming

Climate change

Geography

Environmental resource management

Environmental science

Limiting

Climate extremes

Meteorology

Natural resource economics

Nature Climate Change

Anthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events                  1                , the impacts of which will be particularly hard-felt in already vulnerable locations such as Africa                  2                . However, projected changes in African climate extremes remain little explored, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets3,4. Here, using Community Earth System Model low warming simulations                  5                , we examine how heat and hydrological extremes may change in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, focusing on the projected changing likelihood of events that have comparable magnitudes to observed record-breaking seasons. In the Community Earth System Model, limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C is suggested to robustly reduce the frequency of heat extremes compared to 2 °C. In particular, the probability of events similar to the December–February 1991/1992 southern African and 2009/2010 North African heat waves is estimated to be reduced by 25 ± 5% and 20 ± 4%, respectively, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C. For hydrometeorological extremes (that is, drought and heavy precipitation), by contrast, signal differences are indistinguishable from the variation between ensemble members. Thus, according to this model, continued efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C offer considerable benefits in terms of minimizing heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa. The record hot year of 2015 in Africa had devastating impacts. The likelihood of future annual temperature extremes over Africa exceeding those of 2015 are 91% and 100% in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds, respectively, stressing the benefits of limiting future anthropogenic warming.

Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios