Environmental resource management

Electrical engineering

Land use, land-use change and forestry

Climate change

Electrification

Greenhouse gas

Carbon dioxide

Biology

Civil engineering

Engineering

Environmental economics

Economics

Natural resource economics

Renewable energy

Ecology

Electricity

Carbon sequestration

Carbon capture and storage (timeline)

Land use

Climate change mitigation

Sustainability

Environmental science

Nature Climate Change

Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we explore the impact of alternative pathways that include lifestyle change, additional reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and more rapid electrification of energy demand based on renewable energy. Although these alternatives also face specific difficulties, they are found to significantly reduce the need for CDR, but not fully eliminate it. The alternatives offer a means to diversify transition pathways to meet the Paris Agreement targets, while simultaneously benefiting other sustainability goals. Scenarios that constrain warming to 1.5 °C currently place a large emphasis on CO2 removal. Alternative pathways involving lifestyle change, rapid electrification and reduction of non-CO2 gases could reduce the need for such negative emission technologies.

Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies