sensitivity analysis

model parameters

rainfall runoff

hydrological model

climate change impact

hydrological models

flood forecasting

hydrological processes

hydrological sciences

Advances in water resources

Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.

Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling