Physics

Sociology

Archaeology

League

Population

Mathematics

Psychotherapist

Parametric statistics

Statistics

Astronomy

Association (psychology)

Demography

Logistic regression

Odds

Econometrics

Psychology

Economics

Exploit

Geography

Parametric model

Football

Computer science

Computer security

Poisson regression

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)

SUMMARY A parametric model is developed and fitted to English league and cup football data from 1992 to 1995. The model is motivated by an aim to exploit potential inefficiencies in the association football betting market, and this is examined using bookmakers’ odds from 1995 to 1996. The technique is based on a Poisson regression model but is complicated by the data structure and the dynamic nature of teams’ performances. Maximum likelihood estimates are shown to be computationally obtainable, and the model is shown to have a positive return when used as the basis of a betting strategy.

Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market