Sea surface temperature

Geology

Climate change

Surface air temperature

Multivariate ENSO index

Climatology

Environmental science

Oceanography

Southern oscillation

El Niño Southern Oscillation

Nature Climate Change

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) underpins its global impact, and its future change is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the IPCC reports no systematic change in ENSO SST variability under any emission scenarios considered. However, comparison between the 20th and 21st century shows a robust increase in century-long ENSO SST variability under four IPCC plausible emission scenarios.

Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios