Coupled Continuous-Time Markov Chain–Bayesian Network Model for Dam Failure Risk Prediction

Published on Dec 1, 2021in Journal of Infrastructure Systems2.411
· DOI :10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000649
Ahmed Badr (McMaster University), Ahmed Yosri3
Estimated H-index: 3
(McMaster University)
+ 1 AuthorsWael W. El-Dakhakhni22
Estimated H-index: 22
(McMaster University)
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Abstract
AbstractHydropower dams are critical infrastructure systems characterized by their complex, dynamic, and stochastic behaviors. The frequent variation in the hydrological and meteorological variable...
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#1Zongkun LiH-Index: 8
#2Te WangH-Index: 3
Last. Hanyu LiH-Index: 1
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Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dyna...
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#1Babak Zolghadr-Asli (UT: University of Tehran)H-Index: 6
#2Omid Bozorg-Haddad (UT: University of Tehran)H-Index: 19
Last. Xuefeng Chu (NDSU: North Dakota State University)H-Index: 19
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This study9s objective is to assess the potential impact of climate change on an example under-design hydropower system in the Karkheh River basin, Iran. Based on three water resources performance criteria (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability), a novel framework was proposed to interpret and cope with the uncertainties associated with such assessments. The results demonstrated the acceptable performance of the system in most months, while there were certain signs for rare low-inflows, and...
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#2R WelastikaH-Index: 1
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#1Wei LiH-Index: 4
#2Zongkun LiH-Index: 8
Last. Sai WuH-Index: 1
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The internal mechanism affecting life loss caused by a dam-break flood is complicated. On the basis of analyzing the risk formation path, a risk evaluation indicator system was established which included the hazards, exposure and vulnerability factors. Variable Fuzzy Sets theory was introduced into the risk evaluation of life loss risk grades and applied to eight collapsed dams in China. According to the sequence of the risk grades of these dams, the evaluation result was mainly consistent with ...
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#1Cai WenjunH-Index: 2
#2Xueping ZhuH-Index: 7
Last. Zhe FanH-Index: 1
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To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking...
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#1Mihiran Galagedarage Don (MUN: Memorial University of Newfoundland)H-Index: 2
#2Faisal Khan (MUN: Memorial University of Newfoundland)H-Index: 83
Abstract The present study introduces a novel methodology for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD), based on a combined approach of data and process knowledge driven techniques. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) detects the abnormalities based on process history while the Bayesian Network (BN) diagnoses the root causes of faults. An HMM is trained with standard operating condition data while the structure of BN is developed based on process knowledge. The log-likelihoods (LL) of process historical da...
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#1A. El-AwadyH-Index: 2
#1Younhee Ko (HUFS: Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)H-Index: 12
#2Jaebum Kim (Konkuk University)H-Index: 22
Last. Sandra L. Rodriguez-Zas (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 60
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Background Simultaneous measurement of gene expression level for thousands of genes contains the rich information about many different aspects of biological mechanisms. A major computational challenge is to find methods to extract new biological insights from this wealth of data. Complex biological processes are often regulated under the various conditions or circumstances and associated gene interactions are dynamically changed depending on different biological contexts. Thus, inference of such...
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Water resource planning in a trans-boundary river basin is complex because of different institutional and scientific concerns and it may become increasingly difficult as a consequence of water scarcity caused by climate change. The analysis of discharge variations in a trans-boundary river basin is very important because the results can be key to resolve complex problems including decreased hydropower generation, degraded water quality, and deficient water supplies. Despite its importance, there...
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#1Yu Chen (Sichuan University)H-Index: 1
#2Pengzhi Lin (Sichuan University)H-Index: 1
The risk assessment of a super-large dam exposed to multiple natural risk sources is arduous because of uncertainties in the complex environmental system. Few risk assessment studies consider all of the following factors: the cascade dam effects, the major natural hazard sources and the probabilistic relations between the influencing factors. In this study, we present a Bayesian model of risk analysis (BMRA) for dam overtopping under the combined effects of flood and earthquake. The BMRA involve...
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