Wishful Thinking in Macroeconomic Expectations
Abstract
We conduct an online survey experiment to investigate determinants of macroeconomic expectations. We investigate the effect of probability overweighting, religiosity, ambiguity aversion, and time preference. We find that subjects exhibiting probability overweighting, having higher degree of religiosity, having lower discount factor are more optimistic on economic growth and income, while ambiguity averse subjects are more pessimistic about the...
Paper Details
Title
Wishful Thinking in Macroeconomic Expectations
Published Date
May 14, 2021
Journal
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