A Bayesian approach to comparing common models of life-course epidemiology

Life-course epidemiology studies people's health over long periods, treating repeated measures of their experiences (usually risk factors) as predictors or causes of subsequent morbidity and mortality. Three hypotheses or models often guide the analyst in assessing these sequential risks: the accumulation model (all measurement occasions are equally important for predicting the outcome), the critical period model (only one occasion is important)...