Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model

Aggregating predictions from multiple judges often yields more accurate predictions than relying on a single judge: the wisdom-of-the-crowd effect. But there is a wide range of aggregation methods, from one-size- fits-all techniques, such as simple averaging, prediction markets, and Bayesian aggregators to customized (supervised) techniques, such as weighted averaging, that require past performance data. This article applies a wide range of...