Hidden Experts in the Crowd: Using Meta-Predictions to Leverage Expertise in Single-Question Prediction Problems
Abstract
Modern forecasting algorithms use the wisdom of crowds to produce forecasts better than those of the best identifiable expert. However, these algorithms may be inaccurate when crowds are systematically biased or when expertise varies substantially across forecasters. Recent work has shown that meta-predictions—a forecast of the average forecasts of others—can be used to correct for biases even when no external information, such as forecasters’...
Paper Details
Title
Hidden Experts in the Crowd: Using Meta-Predictions to Leverage Expertise in Single-Question Prediction Problems
Published Date
Jan 1, 2022
Journal
Volume
68
Issue
1
Pages
487 - 508
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