A reassessment of the impact of temperature change on European conflict during the second millennium CE using a bespoke Bayesian time-series model

Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the impact of climate change on human conflict. Here, we report a study in which we revisited the findings of a paper that has been cited many times in the discussion. The paper in question focused on the association between temperature and conflict in Europe between 1000 and 1980 CE and suggested that colder temperatures led to more conflict. However, there are reasons to be skeptical of this...