Proximity Bias: Motivated Effects of Spatial Distance on Probability Judgments

One of the most ubiquitous human judgments is that of probabilistic predictions. Past research has shown that probabilistic predictions are influenced by spatial distance: people judge spatially near events as more likely to occur than faraway ones. We show that outcome valence also matters, and document under what conditions the reverse effect occurs. Across eight hypothetical and incentive-compatible studies (combined N = 3,403), we provide...