Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections

Published: Oct 2, 2007
Abstract
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature and on our experiences with the 2004 presidential election and the 2008 campaign so far, we have reason to believe that a simple expert survey (the...
Paper Details
Title
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections
Published Date
Oct 2, 2007
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