Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering

We conducted prediction markets designed to forecast post-initial public offering (IPO) valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. The prediction markets forecast Google's post-IPO market capitalization relatively accurately. While Google's auction-based IPO price was 15.3% below the first-day closing market capitalization, the final prediction market forecast was only 4.0% above it. The forecast also accorded with the level of...