The Trouble With Overconfidence
Abstract
The authors present a reconciliation of 3 distinct ways in which the research literature has defined overconfidence: (a) overestimation of one's actual performance, (b) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (c) excessive precision in one's beliefs. Experimental evidence shows that reversals of the first 2 (apparent underconfidence), when they occur, tend to be on different types of tasks. On difficult tasks, people...
Paper Details
Title
The Trouble With Overconfidence
Published Date
Apr 1, 2008
Journal
Volume
115
Issue
2
Pages
502 - 517
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