The 'Future Is Now' Bias: Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment When Predicting the Future from the Present

In the present research, we document a novel forecasting bias, which we term the “future is now” (FIN) bias. Specifically, we show that people tend to believe that the future will mirror the present, even when such a belief is unfounded. That is, people overestimate the chances that whatever is happening now, will happen in the future, even when the (known) explicit probabilities of future outcomes contradict such a belief. This appears to be...