From probabilistic back analyses to probabilistic run-out predictions of landslides: A case study of Heifangtai terrace, Gansu Province, China

The input parameters of dynamic numerical models for landslide run-out distance simulations cannot be measured accurately, which results in significant uncertainties in the predictions obtained using these models. To address this issue, a novel framework combining probabilistic back analyses and probabilistic predictions of landslide run-out distance is developed in this study, with the aim of ensuring the reliability of run-out predictions in...