Bayesian probability

Physics

Dark matter

Frequentist inference

Halo

Mathematics

Dwarf galaxy

Galaxy

Statistics

Astronomy

Dwarf galaxy problem

Bayesian inference

Interacting galaxy

Dwarf spheroidal galaxy

Astrophysics

Dark matter halo

Milky Way

Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics

We search for a dark matter signal in 11 years of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray data from 27 Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies with spectroscopically measured J-factors. Our analysis includes uncertainties in J-factors and background normalisations and compares results from a Bayesian and a frequentist perspective. We revisit the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Reticulum II, confirming that the purported gamma-ray excess seen in Pass 7 data is much weaker in Pass 8, independently of the statistical approach adopted. We introduce for the first time posterior predictive distributions to quantify the probability of a dark matter detection from another dwarf galaxy given a tentative excess. A global analysis including all 27 dwarfs shows no indication for a signal in nine annihilation channels. We present stringent new Bayesian and frequentist upper limits on the dark matter cross section as a function of dark matter mass. The best-fit dark matter parameters associated with the Galactic Centre excess are excluded by at least 95% confidence level/posterior probability in the frequentist/Bayesian framework in all cases. However, from a Bayesian model comparison perspective, dark matter annihilation within the dwarfs is not strongly disfavoured compared to a background-only model. These results constitute the highest exposure analysis on the most complete sample of dwarfs to date. Posterior samples and likelihood maps from this study are publicly available.

A global analysis of dark matter signals from 27 dwarf spheroidal galaxies using 11 years of Fermi-LAT observations