Miscalibration in predicting one’s performance: Disentangling misplacement and misestimation.

When people predict their performance, they can be miscalibrated in two ways—they may mispredict how they will perform relative to others (misplacement) and how they will perform in absolute terms (misestimation). Prior work has yielded contradictory conclusions about the relative direction of these two types of miscalibration. Some research found that they occur in opposite directions—that is, that people who believe they are better than...