The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19

Significance The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remain a challenge. Here, we present and detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work is intended to demonstrate the utility of parsimonious models for understanding the pandemic and to...