Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes

Published on Jun 1, 2020
· DOI :10.1002/FFO2.31
Elna Schirrmeister4
Estimated H-index: 4
(Fraunhofer Society),
Anne‐Louise Göhring1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Fraunhofer Society),
Philine Warnke9
Estimated H-index: 9
(Fraunhofer Society)
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Abstract
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The article considers the psychological mechanisms of collective foresight activities. Corporate foresight is considered a collective relection, an open strategic dialogue about group objectives and joint actions that helps group members construct a collective image of the future and adapt to future challenges. The results of expert panel revealed several organizational and psychological barriers that hinder corporate foresight effectiveness in Russia: distrust toward long-term forecasting, the ...
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In this article I argue that most biases in argumentation and decision-making can and should be counteracted. Although biases can prove beneficial in certain contexts, I contend that they are generally maladaptive and need correction. Yet critical thinking alone seems insufficient to mitigate biases in everyday contexts. I develop a contextualist approach, according to which cognitive debiasing strategies need to be supplemented by extra-psychic devices that rely on social and environmental cons...
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Behavioral decision research has demonstrated that value and uncertainty judgments of decision makers and experts are subject to numerous biases. Individual biases can be either cognitive, such as overconfidence, or motivational, such as wishful thinking. In addition, when making judgements in groups, decision makers and experts might be affected by group-level biases. These biases can create serious challenges to decision analysts, who need judgments as inputs to a decision or risk analysis mod...
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Hundreds of studies have found that humans' decisions are strongly influenced by the opinions of others, even when making simple perceptual decisions. In this study, we aimed to clarify whether this effect can be explained by social influence biasing (early) perceptual processes. We employed stimulus evoked potentials, lateralized readiness potentials (LRPs) and a diffusion model analysis of reaction time data to uncover the neurocognitive processes underlying social conformity in perceptual dec...
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In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking—by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We show that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking, and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain, with the result that...
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