Discussion on the meeting on ‘Signs and sizes:understanding and replicating statistical findings’

Published on Feb 1, 2020in Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series A-statistics in Society2.483
· DOI :10.1111/RSSA.12544
Jane L. Hutton51
Estimated H-index: 51
(Warw.: University of Warwick),
Peter J. Diggle94
Estimated H-index: 94
(Lancaster University)
+ 27 AuthorsDavid L. Dowe26
Estimated H-index: 26
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Abstract
References71
Newest
#1Glenn Shafer (RU: Rutgers University)H-Index: 35
This paper examines the development of Laplacean practical certainty from 1810, when Laplace proved his central limit theorem, to 1925, when Ronald A. Fisher published his Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Although Laplace's explanations of the applications of his theorem were accessible to only a few mathematicians, expositions published by Joseph Fourier in 1826 and 1829 made the simplest applications accessible to many statisticians. Fourier suggested an error probability of 1 in 20,0...
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#1John P. A. Ioannidis (Stanford University)H-Index: 205
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#1Sophie K. Piper (Humboldt University of Berlin)H-Index: 13
#2Ulrike Grittner (Humboldt University of Berlin)H-Index: 43
Last. Ulrich DirnaglH-Index: 115
view all 8 authors...
The need for replication of initial results has been rediscovered only recently in many fields of research. In preclinical biomedical research, it is common practice to conduct exact replications with the same sample sizes as those used in the initial experiments. Such replication attempts, however, have lower probability of replication than is generally appreciated. Indeed, in the common scenario of an effect just reaching statistical significance, the statistical power of the replication exper...
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#1Charles F. Manski (NU: Northwestern University)H-Index: 80
#2Aleksey TetenovH-Index: 7
AbstractA convention in designing randomized clinical trials has been to choose sample sizes that yield specified statistical power when testing hypotheses about treatment response. Manski and Tete...
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#1Charles F. Manski (NU: Northwestern University)H-Index: 80
AbstractA central objective of empirical research on treatment response is to inform treatment choice. Unfortunately, researchers commonly use concepts of statistical inference whose foundations are distant from the problem of treatment choice. It has been particularly common to use hypothesis tests to compare treatments. Wald’s development of statistical decision theory provides a coherent frequentist framework for use of sample data on treatment response to make treatment decisions. A body of ...
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ABSTRACTIt is now widely accepted that the techniques of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) are routinely misused and misinterpreted by researchers seeking insight from data. There is, however, no consensus on acceptable alternatives, leaving researchers with little choice but to continue using NHST, regardless of its failings. I examine the potential for the Analysis of Credibility (AnCred) to resolve this impasse. Using real-life examples, I assess the ability of AnCred to provide res...
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#1Leonhard Held (UZH: University of Zurich)H-Index: 47
The concept of intrinsic credibility has been recently introduced to check the credibility of ‘out of the blue’ findings without any prior support. A significant result is deemed intrinsically cred...
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#1Ulrich Dirnagl (Humboldt University of Berlin)H-Index: 115
“To boldly go where no man has gone before”! Exploring and innovating—isn9t this why we are in science after all? But as exciting this may be, others must be able to confirm our results through competent replication. As Karl Popper famously put it: “Single occurrences that cannot be reproduced are of no significance to science” (Popper, 1935). However, despite its status as a founding principle of modern science, replication is often viewed as pedestrian and unoriginal. Academia rewards the expl...
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#1Colin F. Camerer (Caltech: California Institute of Technology)H-Index: 125
#2Anna Dreber (HHS: Stockholm School of Economics)H-Index: 37
Last. Hang Wu (HIT: Harbin Institute of Technology)H-Index: 1
view all 24 authors...
Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same dire...
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#1Matthias Pierce (RMIT: RMIT University)H-Index: 19
#2Tim Millar (RMIT: RMIT University)H-Index: 22
Last. Sheila M. Bird (University of Cambridge)H-Index: 30
view all 4 authors...
Abstract Background The first evidence that the hazard ratio (HR) for methadone-specific death rises more steeply with age-group than for all drug-related deaths (DRDs) came from Scotland's cohort of 33,000 methadone-prescription clients. We aim to examine, for England, whether illicit opioid users' risk of methadone-specific death increases with age; and to pool age-related HRs for methadone-specific deaths with those for Scotland's methadone-prescription clients. Methods The setting is all ser...
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Cited By1
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#1Samuel Pawel (UZH: University of Zurich)H-Index: 3
#2Leonhard HeldH-Index: 47
There is an urgent need to develop new methodology for the design and analysis of replication studies. Recently, a reverse-Bayes method called the sceptical pvalue has been proposed for this purpose; the inversion of Bayes' theorem allows us to mathematically formalise the notion of scepticism, which in turn can be used to assess the agreement between the findings of an original study and its replication. However, despite its Bayesian nature, the method relies on tail probabilities as primary...
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