Probable Cause: The Influence of Prior Probabilities on Forecasts and Perceptions of Magnitude

Consumers’ judgments of the magnitude of benefit that a product provides increase their likelihood of purchasing it, and their judgments of the magnitude of harm that accrues from purchasing a product decrease their likelihood of purchasing it. When assessing the magnitude of a product’s potential outcome, consumers often encounter information about its probability of occurring. Ten studies demonstrate that this information biases consumers’...