Does the Better-than-Average Effect Show that People are Overconfident?: Two Experiments

Volume: 13, Issue: 2, Pages: 293 - 329
Published: Apr 1, 2015
Abstract
We conduct two experimental tests of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find that people overplace themselves. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers who care only about money. The finding represents new evidence of...
Paper Details
Title
Does the Better-than-Average Effect Show that People are Overconfident?: Two Experiments
Published Date
Apr 1, 2015
Volume
13
Issue
2
Pages
293 - 329
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