Supply chain

Physics

Demand forecasting

Mathematics

Operations research

Poisson distribution

Inventory control

Statistics

Exponential smoothing

Probabilistic forecasting

Political science

Econometrics

Artificial intelligence

Turbulence

Negative binomial distribution

Intermittency

Computer science

Probabilistic logic

Safety stock

Thermodynamics

International Journal of Forecasting

In this study, we present the results of the M5 “Accuracy” competition, which was the first of two parallel challenges in the latest M competition with the aim of advancing the theory and practice of forecasting. The main objective in the M5 “Accuracy” competition was to accurately predict 42,840 time series representing the hierarchical unit sales for the largest retail company in the world by revenue, Walmart. The competition required the submission of 30,490 point forecasts for the lowest cross-sectional aggregation level of the data, which could then be summed up accordingly to estimate forecasts for the remaining upward levels. We provide details of the implementation of the M5 “Accuracy” challenge, as well as the results and best performing methods, and summarize the major findings and conclusions. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings and suggest directions for future research.

Why the “best” point forecast depends on the error or accuracy measure