The “losers of automation”: A reservoir of votes for the radical right?

Published on Mar 28, 2019in Research & Politics
· DOI :10.1177/2053168018822395
Zhen Jie Im1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UH: University of Helsinki),
Nonna Mayer20
Estimated H-index: 20
(Sciences Po)
+ 1 AuthorsJan Rovny15
Estimated H-index: 15
(Sciences Po)
This paper studies the association between the risk of automation and vote choice in 11 West European countries. We extend upon labour economics literature on the effects of automation on the labou...
Figures & Tables
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
16 Citations
6 Citations
8 Citations
#1Justin Gest (GMU: George Mason University)H-Index: 9
#2Tyler T. Reny (UCLA: University of California, Los Angeles)H-Index: 5
Last. Jeremy D. Mayer (GMU: George Mason University)H-Index: 8
view all 3 authors...
Following trends in Europe over the past decade, support for the Radical Right has recently grown more significant in the United States and the United Kingdom. While the United Kingdom has witnessed the rise of Radical Right fringe groups, the United States’ political spectrum has been altered by the Tea Party and the election of Donald Trump. This article asks what predicts White individuals’ support for such groups. In original, representative surveys of White individuals in Great Britain and ...
50 CitationsSource
#1Eefje Steenvoorden (EUR: Erasmus University Rotterdam)H-Index: 5
#2Eelco Harteveld (UvA: University of Amsterdam)H-Index: 8
In the literature, explanations of support for populist radical right (PRR) parties usually focus on voters’ socio-structural grievances, political discontent or policy positions. This article suggests an additional and possibly overarching explanation: societal pessimism. The central argument is that the nostalgic character of PRR ideology resonates with societal pessimism among its voters. Using European Social Survey data from 2012, the study compares levels of societal pessimism among PRR, r...
39 CitationsSource
#1Melanie Arntz (Heidelberg University)H-Index: 15
#2Terry GregoryH-Index: 10
Last. Ulrich ZierahnH-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
In light of rapid advances in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics, many scientists discuss the potentials of new technologies to substitute for human labor. Fueling the economic debate, various empirical assessments suggest that up to half of all jobs in western industrialized countries are at risk of automation in the next 10 to 20 years. This paper demonstrates that these scenarios are overestimating the share of automatable jobs by neglecting the substantial heterogeneity ...
107 CitationsSource
#1Allison Rovny (University of Gothenburg)H-Index: 4
#2Jan Rovny (University of Gothenburg)H-Index: 15
Recently, developed economies have witnessed an emerging dualism between the so-called labor market ‘insiders and outsiders’—two groups facing divergent levels of employment security and prospects. Those on the ‘inside’ occupy stable jobs, while those on the ‘outside’ confront increased levels of social and economic risks. There are, however, various prominent, but divergent, operationalizations of the insider–outsider phenomenon. While some scholars opt for indicators rooted in current labor ma...
43 CitationsSource
The recent backlash against globalization in many advanced economies raises questions about the source of this protectionist sentiment. Traditional accounts generally attribute the welfare consequences of trade to skill level or industry characteristics, or instead emphasize the nonmaterial determinants of support for openness. Consequently, we know little about how a major labor market characteristic—occupation—shapes both the distributional consequences of and preferences toward trade openness...
55 CitationsSource
#1Carl Benedikt Frey (University of Oxford)H-Index: 12
#2Michael A. Osborne (University of Oxford)H-Index: 29
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupations probability of computerisation, wages and educat...
2,293 CitationsSource
#1Nonna MayerH-Index: 20
#2Allison RovnyH-Index: 4
Last. Nicolas SaugerH-Index: 12
view all 4 authors...
Les votes ont longtemps ete consideres comme structures par les conflits de classe. Toutefois, lors des elections europeennes de 2014, le vote ne semble pas significativement structure par les classes sociales. Les societes post-industrielles sont au contraire confrontees au declin de la classe ouvriere traditionnelle et au dualisme croissant sur le marche du travail entre individus proteges (insiders) et individus exposes (outsiders). Comment ces changements socio-economiques se traduisent-ils ...
4 CitationsSource
This lecture addresses the political impact of the Great Recession in a context of rising inequalities and retrenching welfare states. Do hard times fuel apathy or revolt, abstention or support for the extremes, and more particularly, in the European context, for thriving radical rights? To answer these questions, I shall take the case of France, in the 2012 presidential election, the first post-crisis one. I shall focus on the poor, the disadvantaged: those hardest hit by the recession.
8 CitationsSource
#1David H. Autor (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 79
#2David Dorn (CEMFI)H-Index: 32
We offer an integrated explanation and empirical analysis of the polarization of U.S. employment and wages between 1980 and 2005, and the concurrent growth of low skill service occupations. We attribute polarization to the interaction between consumer preferences, which favor variety over specialization, and the falling cost of automating routine, codifiable job tasks. Applying a spatial equilibrium model, we derive, test, and confirm four implications of this hypothesis. Local labor markets tha...
1,178 CitationsSource
#1David H. Autor (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 79
#2Michael J. Handel (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 15
Employing original, representative survey data, we document that cognitive, interpersonal and physical job task demands can be measured with high validity using standard interview techniques. Job tasks vary substantially within and between occupations, are significantly related to workers' characteristics, and are robustly predictive of wage differentials both between occupations and among workers in the same occupation. We offer a conceptual framework that makes explicit the causal links betwee...
210 CitationsSource
Cited By25
#1Julien FigeacH-Index: 5
#2Pierre RatinaudH-Index: 8
Last. Fanny Seffusatti (University of Toulouse)
view all 7 authors...
This article analyzes the spread of unreliable information on Twitter during the 2017 French presidential campaign, focusing on the use of mobile phones with regard to information-sharing behavior....
#1Lorenza Antonucci (University of Birmingham)H-Index: 7
#2Carlo D'Ippolito (Sapienza University of Rome)
Last. André KrouwelH-Index: 21
view all 4 authors...
The rising support for radical parties in Europe has triggered a new interest in the political sociology of voting and how voters with socio-economic insecurity are moving away from establishment politics. In this article, we apply Standing’s concept of ‘precarity’ to capture insecurity among ordinary voters and thereby expand the individual socio-economic explanations behind the vote for radical populist right (RPR) and radical left (RL) parties. We develop a multidimensional measure of precari...
#1Tobias Heinrich (USC: University of South Carolina)H-Index: 8
#2Christopher Witko (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 2
Last. Christopher Witko (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 16
view all 2 authors...
Research indicates that susceptibility to having one’s job replaced by technology is associated with candidate and party preferences in affluent democracies, but there is little understanding of wh...
#1Aina GallegoH-Index: 15
#2Alexander Kuo (University of Oxford)H-Index: 9
view all 4 authors...
Despite recent attention to the economic and political consequences of automation and technological change for workers, we lack data about concerns and policy preferences about this structural chan...
2 CitationsSource
#1Elena Cristina Mitrea (Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu)H-Index: 1
#2Monika Mühlböck (University of Vienna)H-Index: 8
Last. Julia Warmuth (University of Vienna)H-Index: 3
view all 3 authors...
In recent decades, and especially since the economic crisis, young people have been finding it more difficult to maintain or exceed the living standards of their parents. As a result, they increasingly expect socioeconomic downward mobility. We study the influence of such a pessimistic view on political attitudes, assuming that it is not so much young adults’ current economic status, but rather their anxiety concerning a prospective socioeconomic decline that affects their ideological positions....
5 CitationsSource
Automation has permeated workplaces and threatens labour in the production process. Concurrently, European governments have expanded workfare which imposes stringent conditions and sanctions on une...
#1Tim Vlandas (University of Oxford)H-Index: 10
#2Daphne Halikiopoulou (University of Reading)H-Index: 15
This article examines the interplay between social risks, welfare state policies and far right voting. Distinguishing between compensatory and protective policies and using data from seven waves of...
1 CitationsSource
#1Karen Jeffrey ('KCL': King's College London)H-Index: 1
#2Konstantinos Matakos ('KCL': King's College London)H-Index: 5
If growth in automation increasingly challenges the American Dream, will preferences for redistributive policies increase? We inform survey experiment respondents that automation will increase inequality, and luck or decisions made by elites (rather than individual effort) will influence who loses out. We find that beliefs promoted by the American Dream are relatively immutable and preferences for redistributive policies increase only where baseline support is sufficiently high, relatively unpol...
Abstract Does the politico–economic system affect preferences for immigration? In this study, I show that individuals exposed to life under state socialism have formed and persistently hold different attitudes toward immigration. By exploiting the division and reunification of Germany, I estimate the influence of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration. Drawing on rich individual panel data, I find that East Germans who lived under state socialism, are 15 percent more likely to oppose im...