Accuracy of German federal election forecasts, 2013 & 2017

Volume: 35, Issue: 3, Pages: 868 - 877
Published: Jul 1, 2019
Abstract
The present study reviews the accuracy of four methods (polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, and quantitative models) for forecasting the two German federal elections in 2013 and 2017. On average across both elections, polls and prediction markets were most accurate, while experts and quantitative models were least accurate. However, the accuracy of individual forecasts did not correlate across elections. That is, the methods that were...
Paper Details
Title
Accuracy of German federal election forecasts, 2013 & 2017
Published Date
Jul 1, 2019
Volume
35
Issue
3
Pages
868 - 877
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