Agriculture

Ecology

Representative Concentration Pathways

Biology

Coupled model intercomparison project

Precipitation

Water resource management

Food security

Climate model

Water resources

Climate change

Geography

Agronomy

Environmental science

Meteorology

Irrigation

The Science of The Total Environment

Maize, rice, wheat and soybean-the major staple food crops in China-have a crucial role in national food security and economic development. Predictions of changes in the requirements for irrigation water in food crop production under climate change may provide scientific support for the optimum allocation of water resources and measures to mitigate climate change. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis using projections of future climate generated by a bias-correction and spatial disaggregation multi-model ensemble for three representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) adopted by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We investigated the effects of climate change associated with increasing temperature, changed precipitation and increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the irrigation water requirements of maize, rice, wheat and soybean in China at the end of the 21st century (2081-2100). Our results indicate that the irrigation water requirements of maize and wheat are driven by temperature and especially by CO2 concentrations in the northwest interior area as a result of the low rainfall and high rates of evaporation; the irrigation water requirement of soybean is influenced by a combined effect of temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration, whereas the irrigation water requirement for rice is dominated by precipitation alone in the southern coastal region, which has high rainfall. The irrigation water requirements of crops decrease mainly as a result of the beneficial effects of CO2 on plant growth in China. The regions requiring vast amounts of irrigation water as a result of climate change are mainly concentrated in northwestern China. The effects of climate change affect the requirement for irrigation water, especially under high-emission scenarios, and should be studied further to design appropriate adaptation strategies for the management of agricultural water to maintain the sustainable development of agriculture.

Effects of temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentrations on the requirements for crop irrigation water in China under future climate scenarios