Government (linguistics)

Referendum

Mathematics

Austerity

Politics

Welfare

Economic policy

Statistics

Philosophy

Political economy

Political science

Econometrics

Economics

Coalition government

Brexit

Victory

European union

Linguistics

Independence (probability theory)

Panel data

American Economic Review

This paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government’s austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity. (JEL D72, F15, F60, H53, I38)

Did Austerity Cause Brexit?