Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements

Volume: 272, Issue: 1, Pages: 389 - 405
Published: Jan 1, 2019
Abstract
We examine the impact of price trends on the accuracy of forecasts from prediction markets. In particular, we study an electronic betting exchange market and construct independent variables from market price (odds) time series from 6058 individual markets (a dataset consisting of over 8.4 million price points). Using a conditional logit model, we find that a systematic relationship exists between trends in odds and the accuracy of odds-implied...
Paper Details
Title
Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements
Published Date
Jan 1, 2019
Volume
272
Issue
1
Pages
389 - 405
Citation AnalysisPro
  • Scinapse’s Top 10 Citation Journals & Affiliations graph reveals the quality and authenticity of citations received by a paper.
  • Discover whether citations have been inflated due to self-citations, or if citations include institutional bias.