Public health

Pathology

Window of opportunity

Disease

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Infectious disease (medical specialty)

Biology

Pandemic

Outbreak

Nursing

Virology

Geography

Warning system

Computer science

Real-time computing

Medicine

Transmission (telecommunications)

Telecommunications

Environmental health

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Significance In the last two decades, multiple outbreaks of emerging pathogens have unexpectedly swept the planet. In these public health emergencies, pathogens invade new regions in the span of just a few weeks to months, leaving a critical window of opportunity during which real-time warning could be sounded. As such, accurate prediction of the spatial spread of pathogens could provide invaluable benefits to global public health. Here we develop and validate an operational forecast system that is capable of predicting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States. In particular, the onset week of local outbreaks can be accurately predicted up to 6 wk in advance at state level.

Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States