Optimal Scale-Up of HIV Treatment Programs in Resource-Limited Settings Under Supply Uncertainty

HIV clinics in sub-Saharan Africa face an important challenge of allocating scarce and unreliable supply of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) among new patients (treatment initiation) and patients already on treatment (treatment continuation). The key trade-off underlying this allocation is between the marginal health benefit obtained by initiating an untreated patient on treatment and that obtained by avoiding treatment interruption of a treated...