Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture
Abstract
Routine surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to daily or weekly counts of reported cases stratified by region and age group. From a public health perspective, forecasts of infectious disease spread are of central importance. We argue that such forecasts need to properly incorporate the attached uncertainty, so they should be probabilistic in nature. However, forecasts also need to take into account temporal dependencies...
Paper Details
Title
Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture
Published Date
Jun 27, 2017
Journal
Volume
36
Issue
22
Pages
3443 - 3460
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