Using Regression Discontinuity to Uncover the Personal Incumbency Advantage

We study the conditions under which a regression discontinuity (RD) design can be used to recover the personal incumbency advantage, a quantity that has long been of interest to political scientists. We offer an expanded interpretation of the RD design that allows us to back out unbiased estimates of this quantity by focusing on open seats — elections with no incumbent running. Our focus on open seats avoids including in the personal incumbency...