Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment

Volume: 131, Pages: 110 - 120
Published: Nov 1, 2015
Abstract
Overprecision is the most robust and least understood form of overconfidence. In an attempt to elucidate the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment, the present paper offers a new approach – examining people’s beliefs about the likelihood of chance events drawn from known probability distributions. This approach allows us to test the assumption that low hit rates inside subjective confidence intervals arise because those confidence...
Paper Details
Title
Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment
Published Date
Nov 1, 2015
Volume
131
Pages
110 - 120
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