The Trouble With Overconfidence

Published: May 22, 2007
Abstract
This paper presents a reconciliation of the three distinct ways in which the research literature has defined overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance, (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (3) excessive precision in one's beliefs. Experimental evidence shows that reversals of the first two (apparent underconfidence), when they occur, tend to be on different types of tasks. On difficult tasks, people...
Paper Details
Title
The Trouble With Overconfidence
Published Date
May 22, 2007
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