Secular Trends in Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and Implications on the Projections for Future Prevalence

Background— Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050. Methods and Results— The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence...