A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in Judgment

Overprecision-an excessive confidence that one knows the truth-is both the most durable and the least understood form of overconfidence. This article outlines an approach to the study of overprecision that avoids some of the methodological problems of other approaches and better reflects the way uncertainty affects choices in everyday life. We measured the precision in judgment implied by people's tendency to adjust their point estimates of an...