Overdetection of Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy: Estimates Based on Patient and Tumor Characteristics

Purpose: Prostate-specific antigen recurrence (PSA-R) after radical prostatectomy (RP) can occur years before metastasis. This study estimates the chance that an untreated PSA-R would not progress to clinical metastasis within the patient's lifetime, that is, that recurrence is overdetected. Experimental Design: Times from PSA-R to metastasis were estimated from patients with RP treated at Johns Hopkins University (Baltimore, MD) who did not...