Forecasting Tournaments
Volume: 23, Issue: 4, Pages: 290 - 295
Published: Aug 1, 2014
Abstract
Forecasting tournaments are level-playing-field competitions that reveal which individuals, teams, or algorithms generate more accurate probability estimates on which topics. This article describes a massive geopolitical tournament that tested clashing views on the feasibility of improving judgmental accuracy and on the best methods of doing so. The tournament’s winner, the Good Judgment Project, outperformed the simple average of the crowd by...
Paper Details
Title
Forecasting Tournaments
Published Date
Aug 1, 2014
Volume
23
Issue
4
Pages
290 - 295
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