Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Skill as a Function of Ensemble Size and Spatial Scale in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Volume: 139, Issue: 5, Pages: 1410 - 1418
Published: May 1, 2011
Abstract
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the storm-scale ensemble forecast system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms during the spring of 2009 are evaluated using area under the relative operating characteristic curve (ROC area). ROC area, which measures discriminating ability, is examined for ensemble size n from 1 to 17 members and for spatial scales ranging from 4 to 200 km. Expectedly, incremental...
Paper Details
Title
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Skill as a Function of Ensemble Size and Spatial Scale in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble
Published Date
May 1, 2011
Volume
139
Issue
5
Pages
1410 - 1418
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