The economy and the presidential vote: What leading indicators reveal well in advance

Volume: 24, Issue: 2, Pages: 218 - 226
Published: Apr 1, 2008
Abstract
Everybody knows that “the economy” matters in presidential elections, but how can one incorporate economic information in an early forecasting equation? Our economic forecasting tool is the cumulative growth of leading indicators during a presidential term—weighting recent growth most heavily—which provides an early warning, as early as quarter 1 of the election year, about the Election Day economy. To control for other, non-economic factors,...
Paper Details
Title
The economy and the presidential vote: What leading indicators reveal well in advance
Published Date
Apr 1, 2008
Volume
24
Issue
2
Pages
218 - 226
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