The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals.

The perspective of the naïve intuitive statistician is outlined and applied to explain overconfidence when people produce intuitive confidence intervals and why this format leads to more overconfidence than other formally equivalent formats. The naïve sampling model implies that people accurately describe the sample information they have but are naïve in the sense that they uncritically take sample properties as estimates of population...