The Horse Race: What Polls Reveal as the Election Campaign Unfolds

The horse race of election campaigns is of great interest to scholars of public opinion and the public itself (Iyengar, Norpoth, and Hahn, 2004). In the modern day, in most every democratic country, we have a stream of polls registering electoral preferences during campaigns. In some countries, not a day goes by without a new poll release from one survey house or another. We thus have a lot of data at hand to assess the evolution of preferences...