Forecasting methods for CIM technologies

The new technologies diffusion, measured by share changes, can be described by S-shaped curves. These curves usually represent the first three stages of a technological life cycle: embryonic stage, expansion, and maturity. The stage of a declining technology share depends on the dynamics of the next, evolving technology, which is at its embryonic or expansion stage. Naturally, the real trajectories never go along with a mathematical curve. The...