Otolaryngology-head and neck surgery physician work force issues: an analysis for future specialty planning.

Published on Feb 1, 2012in Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery2.341
· DOI :10.1177/0194599811433977
Jin Suk C. Kim2
Estimated H-index: 2
(UPenn: University of Pennsylvania),
Richard A. Cooper44
Estimated H-index: 44
(Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics),
David W. Kennedy86
Estimated H-index: 86
(UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)
Objective. To predict future trends in the otolaryngology workforce and propose solutions to correct the identified discrepancies between supply and demand.Study Design. Economic modeling and analysis.Setting. Data sets at national medical and economic organizations.Subjects and Methods. Based on current American Academy of Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery, American Medical Association, and National Residency Matching Program data sets, population census data, and historical physician growth demand curves, the future otolaryngology workforce supply and demand were modeled. Adjustments were made for projected increases in mid-level providers, increased insurance coverage, and the potential effects of lifestyle preferences.Results. There are currently approximately 8600 otolaryngologists in the United States. Estimated demand by 2025 is 11,127 based on projected population growth and anticipated increase in insurance coverage. With an average retirement age of 65 years and no increase in PGY-1 positions...
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