A prospectively validated clinical risk score accurately predicts pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy.

Published on Jan 1, 2013in Journal of The American College of Surgeons4.59
· DOI :10.1016/J.JAMCOLLSURG.2012.09.002
Mark P. Callery66
Estimated H-index: 66
(BIDMC: Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center),
Wande B. Pratt18
Estimated H-index: 18
(WashU: Washington University in St. Louis)
+ 2 AuthorsCharles M. Vollmer67
Estimated H-index: 67
(UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)
Background Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas (CR-POPF) are serious inherent risks of pancreatic resection. Preoperative CR-POPF risk assessment is currently inadequate and rarely disqualifies patients who need resection. The best evaluation of risk occurs intraoperatively, and should guide fistula prevention and response measures thereafter. We sought to develop a risk prediction tool for CR-POPF that features intraoperative assessment and reveals associated clinical and economic significance. Study Design Based on International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula classification, recognized risk factors for CR-POPF (small duct, soft pancreas, high-risk pathology, excessive blood loss) were evaluated during pancreaticoduodenectomy. An optimal risk score range model, selected from 3 different constructs, was first derived (n = 233) and then validated prospectively (n = 212). Clinical and economic outcomes were evaluated across 4 ranges of scores (negligible risk, 0 points; low risk, 1 to 2; intermediate risk, 3 to 6; high risk, 7 to 10). Results Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas occurred in 13% of patients. The incidence was greatest with excessive blood loss. Duct size Conclusions A simple 10-point Fistula Risk Score derived during pancreaticoduodenectomy accurately predicts subsequent CR-POPF. It can be readily learned and broadly deployed. This prediction tool can help surgeons anticipate, identify, and manage this ominous complication from the outset.
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