Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls
Abstract
The dominant methodology for short-term forecasting of electoral outcomes uses trial-heat polls, where respondents report their current electoral preferences (not their election-day predictions). Election markets, where self-selected participants trade shares of candidates at prices predictive of election-day results, provide an alternative method that often produces more accurate forecasts. Consequently, increasing attention is being paid to...
Paper Details
Title
Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls
Published Date
Jan 1, 2004
Journal
Volume
12
Issue
3
Pages
277 - 295
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